Supplier Lead Times Are Wrong and Nobody Fixes Them
Inventory managers are struggling with inaccurate lead time data provided by suppliers. This discrepancy between promised and actual lead times leads to stockouts and forces manual workarounds, creating a guessing game and undermining standard safety stock formulas. The core issue is a lack of reliable data for inventory planning.
SOURCES (60)
“Turn the first warehouse pilot into an engineering brief before choosing a contractor. Pick one pallet flow, name the safety boundary, define the stop conditions, and agree on the measured result the warehouse manager can validate. Ask each waitlist manager to confirm the intended site…”
“I'm curious if anyone here has a real-life example where improving forecast accuracy actually resulted in measurable inventory or service-level improvements. For example, something like: WAPE went from 30% to 24% forecast bias went from +10% to +2% inventory decreased X% fill rate/service level increased from X% to Y% stockouts decreased X% obsolete stock / markdowns decreased X% I'm particularly interested in whether anyone has measured the relationship between forecast error and the am”
“I think supplier lead times are often evaluated mainly by the number itself. 30 days sounds better than 45. But if that “30 days” regularly becomes 40, 50 or more, the shorter quotation isn’t very useful. Some questions I think matter more are: When does the lead-time clock actually start? Which components come from outside suppliers? Is packaging included? Is the quoted time based on current capacity? How early will the supplier communicate a delay? Is the lead time based on working days or cal”
“Small online shop, we ship 30-60 orders a week. Our cheap option is USPS Ground Advantage and it's honestly fine most of the time, but a handful of orders a month take 7-9 days and those customers email us angry even though checkout said 2-5 business days. Have you had better luck removing the cheap option entirely, padding the quoted delivery estimate, or just eating a refund when it runs long? Curious what actually reduced the complaints for people at a similar volume. submitted by &”
“I am a new concrete company owner. Maybe I’m doing something wrong but all of the dumpster companies I’ve used in the area are never on time. Is there something I can do differently? I can schedule them staggered. Say 8 AM and 12 AM. The first one will show up early at 7 and we will hurry to get it filled so they can pick it up. Then the next one we will be waiting to show up at 12 and won’t show up until 2. This usually puts a holdup on things. Is this just industry standard? submitted by”
“I would ignore the business owner and deal with whoever is the product owner/manager and ask for a meeting with the vendor. You need to know exactly what the system needs access to. I’ve been in this exact situation and I’ve said “no we can’t do that, and listed the exact reasons including security issues why. I was very clear about not agreeing to cloud or database infrastructure without oh idk the fucking DBA being engaged. Luckily for me an executive of the area doing the project (despite bei”
“Start with businesses that ship on a schedule, not general social media. Contact wholesalers, furniture stores, and contractors nearby with a simple rate card and your available routes.”
“Imagine being offered $52 for “42 miles”, (only counting the trip between store and customer!) for a Tractor Supply order ominously marked “huge”. Except the store itself is 65 miles away. The drive back home would be another 65 miles, also out to the middle of nowhere. So it’s really $52 for 172 miles. Respectfully, get bent, Roadie. Jeez, I thought DoorDash had balls. This is just insulting. submitted by /u/TerminalViscosity69 [link] [comments]”
“Write down your dispatch rules before you pick anything. Which days you bake, which day things go in the post, the last moment someone can order for a given send, and how many boxes you can physically pack in a week. Then look at both and see which one lets you say that at checkout without a bodge. That's the bit that actually bites with food by post. A default store setup will cheerfully sell someone a box at 11pm Sunday for a send you can't make, and then you're fixing it one messa”
“The first sign a supplier is worth trusting? When they tell you no. Not "no we cant do it", but "no, we shouldn't do it that way" or "no, that timeline is risky". Suppliers who only ever say yes are salesmen, not partners. You want the ones who spot issues before they happen and bring you solutions, not just invoices.”
“This is a great mindset. I see the same thing from the 3PL side. Brands can overcomplicate logistics way too early when the priority should be building a simple, reliable operation that can grow with them. The key is knowing when fulfillment starts taking too much time away from actually growing the business. At that point, whether it’s better automation, AI, or the right 3PL partner, the goal should be the same: keep the founder focused on growth instead of chasing orders and solving fulfillmen”
“I’ve been thinking about how easy it is to solve unreliable lead times by just carrying more inventory. That obviously gives you a buffer, but at some point it feels like you’re paying to compensate for a supplier that isn’t actually dependable. For critical materials or components, where do you draw that line? Do you keep more stock because switching suppliers is harder, or does repeated use of safety stock become a sign that the supplier relationship needs fixing? submitted by /u/H”
“For all you Tai customers, now is your time to start looking for a replacement. submitted by /u/FreightTechGuy [link] [comments]”
“On paper, some loads look completely routine: one pickup, one delivery, and nothing unusual about the miles. Then a tight appointment, jobsite access, special securement, driver assist, slow loading, or one missing detail changes the whole plan. What is the detail that most often turns a simple-looking load into something you have to plan around? submitted by /u/CRST-International [link] [comments]”
“Same. Partly for delivery issues and partly because of pickup issues with our local post office. UPS cost more, but they are faster, have a higher delivery rate, are quicker to pay insurance claims, and their carriers pick up our outgoing packages without issue. It has been worth the cost increase for us.”
“so we run 2 locations, main warehouse and a small retail spot. had a customer come in wanting a specific item, we're sold out at the store, guy leaves. turns out we had like 20 of that exact thing sitting in the warehouse the whole time, just nobody moved it over in time not the first time this has happened either. it's always the same story, one place is overstocked on something the other place can't keep on the shelf, and by the time someone notices it's already cost us a sale”
“Does that workaround mostly create problems when you receive across multiple POs, or is the bigger issue that the in transit status is no longer accurate?”
“I ended up just making several POs and creating the transfers as "in transit" immediately so I can see what's incoming, even though it's not actually "in transit". Then I receive across multiple POs. It's a bit of a headache, but it's free.”
“Hello all, Independent shop parts manager here, new to the group, is there still an influx of backordered parts that are holding up cycle times?? I hear that people are still struggling but I’m not noticing it. submitted by /u/LavishnessOwn9280 [link] [comments]”
“putting lead times in plain product descriptions always leads to customer support chaos once orders start rolling in. I work for agentui and we see a lot of ecom ops teams build lightweight internal order management portals that automatically calculate ship-by dates based on product tags and push clean status notifications to buyers so you arent manually answering where is my order emails all day... happy to show you how that workflow works if you want.”
“Yeah every product business has this rhythm and it messes with your head every time, because nothing changed and yet the orders just dry up for no reason. Some of it is genuinely random noise that evens out over the month.”
“Our small handmade shop moves similar custom pieces through three areas. They start at the making bench, go to checking, and finish at packing. In one batch, a tray completed that trip while its loose paper note stayed on the first bench. By the time we noticed, two similar pieces were sitting side by side in packing. We caught the mismatch before shipping. The order system had been correct all along, but the workshop had lost the link between the record and the physical piece. The current pilot”
“I am so exhausted by today’s manufacturer’s and our distributors, and at this point it’s literally all of them. I just want to know when it is ever going to get better. I’m the Service Manager for a medium sized locally owned company that services both commercial and residential. We’ve bean a Factory Authorized Dealer for Carrier for close to the last FORTY YEARS, and have major relations with Trane Commercial. Tell me why I can’t get proper tech support from Carrier!? They defer all tech suppor”
“Sorry, in the UK we also use courier to mean delivery service. I don’t have exact weight yet, but I expect shipping to be in the several thousand dollar range if that gives an indication. I am confirming this with the supplier at the moment.”
“Serious question. If the material master says lead time is 45 days but the supplier has delivered the last 8 orders in 70-110 days, which number does your team actually plan against? Because in MRO procurement, that difference is the gap between “PO is placed” and “maintenance is screaming.” Do you use actual GR history to challenge supplier lead times, or does everyone just work from the stored value until something goes wrong? submitted by /u/100TheCoolest17 [link] [comments]”
“Anyone used them for supply chain planning before? What's their ballpark pricing? I know pricing depends on a lot of factors but just after an idea of the company size you were at and what you were quoted. Would you use them again for supply chain planning? submitted by /u/Richy456 [link] [comments]”
“These containers are tracked anyway. So are the ships. So it's just a matter of putting that data together.”
I worked for a business with an expensive problem. For some important products, it often took more than two weeks to provide customers with price quotes. The delay was driven by the…
“New to the LTL game, How common is it to find same week delivery on non regional LTL? For example Chicago to Denver. submitted by /u/Inner-Marketing-6495 [link] [comments]”
“What category are you doing, maybe we can help if we have supplier that already works with us and with free capacity.”
“That’s a bizarre outcome. I’d still keep documenting everything though. Fifteen claims with the same pattern will probably get someone’s attention eventually, and FedEx could change how they value or investigate them once they see the total.”
“I'd work both angles at the same time, have your customs broker or freight forwarder do everything possible to fix the paperwork while you secure emergency inventory. Waiting for customs without a backup plan feels a lot riskier than having inventory you hopefully won't need.”
“good points, and thank you! I'm talking with a few other suppliers right now but it sucks because I can't really negotiate since I have to deal with this ASAP, but yeah, pushing my current suppliers is a good idea, I'll try that.”
“Congrats, that's a good problem to have. I'd be careful not to scale ad spend faster than your supply chain. Forecast inventory based on recent demand, reorder earlier than feels necessary, and keep a case buffer specifically for inventory. Stockouts don't just cost sales, they can also hurt your ad momentum and customer trust.”
“yeah th eshipping part was honestly taking wayyy more time than it should for me too. i just wanted to print labels and compare rates without signing up for a bunch of different stuff and paying for eevery little add on. still have to do some of it manually obviously but its a lot less annoying now.”
“Sent in a shipment to 5 different FBA warehouses. 2/5 of the shipment was updated to 'in transit' status, while the other 3/5 still only shows as 'shipped' status. A bit bizarre as it was shipped from the same location. Do I just wait this out? submitted by /u/appJC [link] [comments]”
“That is ok but you need find the suitable supplier .because that is online trade .you need choose the suitable company:found beyond 5 years at least .then check that is price include details .where need pick up good.”
“I genuinely want to know if this is happening at other Ross stores or if it’s just ours. I work at a Ross in a border town. Our store isn’t that big, and our backroom/warehouse is even smaller, yet we regularly get 300-400 boxes on truck days. One time we even got around 500 boxes. The problem is we already have so much overstock that there’s nowhere to put anything. We keep taking merchandise back into the warehouse because it won’t fit on the sales floor, but the warehouse is already packed. I”
“I think people sometimes look at the revenue side and forgot about the time involved. Keeping the fees is nice, but if you're the one dealing with every lost package and claim that's part of the cost too.”
“Long story short Load is supposed to be a drop and hook swap I get here. One employee tells me I may be in the wrong spot Later another comes takes my paper work and tells me I’m in the right spot. And to back up in dock I’m assuming that they’re going to unload this one then load me up with the outbound shipment Turns out according to my company the loaded trailer is here, just on other side of warehouse somewhere I track down one of the employees and he tells me he gave my paperwork to his sup”
“You are getting emails, try to add phone number in your form so you get that as well and send both email and whatsapp reminders But chances are 30/70 percentage because if a person doesn’t place order at first place he must be confused and most likely will change his mind or must have found a better deal”
“I’m getting only around 20 packages a day, down from around double/triple that depending on the day. Everyone else in my area has the double/triple amount. I’m in excellent standing. I’ve been doing this almost a year. I hate to sound like I’m paranoid but do you think I’m being penalized for something? Has this happened to anyone else? It’s such a big chop in amount, it’s been like this about two weeks. I’m lost. Any input is appreciated. submitted by /u/This-Body808 [link] [c”
“Hey y'all, looking for some honest feedback from people actually in the field. I have about 5 years in procurement and supply chain in a commodity based industry. Strong background in vendor management, contract negotiation, supplier relationships, and spend analysis. Currently in an analytical role supporting procurement decisions at a large company. The main reason I'm looking to make this move is that my current industry is pretty thin in my region in terms of job options and long ter”
“I keep seeing the same workflow at small and mid-size businesses: Email 5 carriers → get 5 reply threads → manually copy prices into a spreadsheet → pick one → type it into the system again. Takes hours per shipment and mistakes happen all the time. Questions for shippers here: Is this still the standard at your company or have you found something better? If you tried a TMS — why did you keep it or drop it? What would actually make you change your quoting process? Additionally, how woudl you pre”